Only one of the division winners won in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, and if you had that team being the Seahawks, I take my hat off to you. The Seahawk victory was one of the most surprising since the Cardinals swept their way to the Super Bowl two years ago. There has been a lot of revisionist history in the past couple of days that pointed to a Seattle victory, but I’ll admit I was the most sure that New Orleans would win. We had some very exciting games, but they are done and it is time to look forward to the Divisional Round, which features its share of good games – all of which are rematches from the regular season. Let’s take a look at each one.
Packers at Falcons
In Week 12, Green Bay went down to Atlanta with a four-game winning streak that included dominating wins against the Cowboys and Vikings immediately preceding the Atlanta game. They had womped Dallas and Minnesota by a combined score of 76-10. In the Georgia Dome, they were only able manufacture 17 points despite 344 yards from Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers was also the leading rusher for the Pack with 51 yards on 12 carries plus a TD. Clearly, the biggest difference in Green Bay is the development of James Starks. Maybe the Packer offensive line is finally coming together or maybe Starks is just a lot better than Brandon Jackson. Whatever the case, Green Bay is much more dangerous than they were on Nov. 28. On the other hand, after stymieing three offenses in a row (the Packers shut out the Jets prior to their two big wins), the Falcons were able to move the ball. Michael Turner had 110 yards on 23 carries and Matt Ryan successfully used a short passing game (24-for-28 for 197 yards). The Falcons were able to move the ball in the final minute to set up a Matt Bryant game-winner from 47 yards. It should be another close and interesting game, and people who selected Rodgers in drafts two weeks ago could be in for more big numbers.
Seahawks at Bears
The Seahawk victory over Chicago is ancient history compared to the Falcons’ win over their opponent, but I don’t think the teams have changed that much since Week 6. I thought the key to the Seahawk win against the Saints was their defensive line and its ability to get pressure on Drew Brees despite rushing just three linemen. The Seahawk defensive ends, Chris Clemons and Raheem Brock, were able to use speed rushes to loop around the Saint tackles and put pressure on Brees. This also left the interior of the Saint offensive line stuck blocking one guy. The Bear offensive line is not as good as the Saint line, so the rushing Seahawk ends could have some success in putting pressure on Jay Cutler. The Bear line has coalesced somewhat since Week 6, but Seattle sacked Cutler six times in the previous meeting. Apparently, the poor field in Chicago did not slow down the Seattle pass rush. That said, the Bear rushing game has improved since that game in which the Chicago was in heavy Mike Martz rotation. They only attempted 14 rushes and gained 61 yards. Chester Taylor led the Bears with 31 yards on four carries. Julius Peppers should be more of a factor in the playoff game. He had six sacks in the second half of the season after getting just two in the first half.
Ravens at Steelers
Pretty much every war-time metaphor has already been used to describe this game. The teams played two epic regular season games that featured defense, defense, some field goals, and more defense. I wouldn’t expect anything less from Round 3. Both Pittsburgh (8.5) and Baltimore (11.5) ranked in the top four in defending opposing running backs in terms of fantasy points. The Steelers were the best and Baltimore was fourth best (the Jets and Packers were the two other top teams). In the two games against Pittsburgh, Ray Rice had 17 carries for 52 yards. Rashard Mendenhall had a bit more success with 124 yards on 44 carries. Mendenhall scored both Pittsburgh TD’s in the first meeting of the two teams, but the Pittsburgh offensive line was more intact at that point. The Steeler offensive line will be key in this game, but they are on second string offensive tackles, Jonathan Scott and Flozell Adams. If the line can buy Ben Roethlisberger time, he may be able to find Mike Wallace for some yards. Meanwhile, Joe Flacco will need to improve on his 17-for-33 game in the Ravens’ win on Dec. 5. The Baltimore line has been decent but not great and they will have to hold the Steeler blitzers at bay.
Jets at Patriots
This is another intradivisional AFC in which the teams actually split the season series. It may seem like the Patriots haven’t lost this season, but that season was three years ago. The Jets were able to hang the first loss of the season on New England back in Week 2. In that game, Marc Sanchez threw three TD’s and one of Tom Brady’s two TD’s went to some guy named Randy Moss who is no longer on the team. How things changed in Week 13. With Moss safely tucked away in Tennessee, Brady threw four TD’s to four different receivers. BenJarvus Green-Ellis also had a successful game against the Jets with 72 yards and two TD’s inside the red zone. The Jets did a nice job bottling up the Colt offense last week, but Indianapolis does not feature the same type of balance as the Patriots. This game would seem to fall into the same category as the Seahawk-Saint game from last week. On paper, it doesn’t look like the Jets can win. Of course, we saw how that worked out in Seattle. To win, the Jets will need Sanchez to be more accurate, they’ll need their running game to provide some balance, and they’ll need to put some pressure on Brady. That’s a lot of needs and I’d be hard pressed to find a good reason that the Jets can win.
